Presidential race update

We're over halfway through the Democratic convention. It's been interesting to compare it to the Republican convention last week. I watched about as much of the republican convention as I have the Democrat convention. I listened to Mr. Trump's speech, Mr. Guiliana, and other Republicans. I listened to Mrs. Obama's speech, Bernie Sanders, and part of Bill Clinton's. (I had it on but my mind wandered a few times.)

A number of the mainstream polls are reporting that Mr. Trump picked up a bounce from the Republican convention. That isn't unusual. But he doesn't lead in the all the polls, and his leads in the polls that find him in the lead, are small considering his "bounce." In other words, he hasn't bounced too high.

That's going to be a problem for him. Particularly with the star power that is being displayed at the Democratic convention. I predict that after tonight's speech by President Obama, and tomorrow night's speech by Mrs. Clinton, that her campaign will bounce back into a substantial lead which she will never reliquish.

The only thing that could derail this scenario is unknown unknowns. Who would have imagined the email hack from the DNC computers? If there are documents out there that can be portrayed as showing Mrs. Clinton being less than truthful, it could undo the repairs to that image that are going on this week. But remember, at the same time the drum beat for Mr. Trump to release his tax returns is going to grow louder and more intense as the weeks go by. Who knows what all may come out about him?

So that's my prediction at this point in time. How fascinating it all is. The Democratic convention is definitely more diverse, interactive, and interesting than the Republicans. The question is, are there documents out that could show something more serious that Mrs. Clinton was involved in. She's very smart, and it seems likely to me that she wouldn't be that careless. We'll see. Short of some bombshell that we couldn't predict, you are going to see her support take off as the energy from this convention and broad support from powerful people filters through the culture.


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